Riviera Maya, Q.R. — A disturbance discovered Monday by the National Hurricane Centre has already developed into a tropical depression. Nineteen developed Wednesday afternoon and, according to the NOAA, has a trajectory for Quintana Roo.
A hurricane watch has already been issued for parts of Honduras. According to AccuWeather, Nineteen will quickly develop further into a tropical storm before gaining hurricane status.
AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno says wind shear and warm waters remain plentiful which will help Nineteen organize into a storm.
“Wind shear remains negligible over much of the Caribbean, and waters are plenty warm (in the 80s F), and now, with showers and thunderstorms beginning to gather, it will likely not be much longer until the tropical rainstorm organizes into a tropical storm,” he said.
According to the NOAA, “a broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive (90 percent) for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea. Afterward, further development is likely.”
Nineteen is forecast to slowly turn northwestward early next week. It is the second time this week the NOAA has said “interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.”
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva is forecasting a major hurricane by next week. “Not only does this have a high chance of becoming a hurricane by the end of this week, but it may become a major hurricane very quickly, this weekend.”
AccuWeather has predicted Nineteen to gain hurricane status and scrape by Cancun and Riviera Maya as a category 3 between Monday night and Tuesday morning before making Florida landfall Wednesday as a category 2 hurricane.
The next named storm will be Sara. If current Nineteen forms into Hurricane Sara as predicted, it will be the 12th of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
