Riviera Maya, Q.R. — The National Hurricane Centre has reported on the first Atlantic disturbance of the 2026 season. On Wednesday morning, a disturbance was located in the Bay of Campeche west of the Yucatan Peninsula.
The National Hurricane Centre says the disturbance could form into a low pressure system later in the week, however, further development is unlikely.
The National Hurricane Centre reported on the Tropical Weather Outlook for the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
“Bay of Campeche: A broad area of low pressure could form over the Bay of Campeche late this week. Conditions are not expected to be favorable for significant development, and the system should move inland over eastern Mexico late this weekend.
“Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent.”
The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), Mexico’s national weather organization, says rain is in the forecast for much of the country. For the next several days, heavy rain is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula.
Heavy rain, which will move down the eastern coast, is forecast for northern Quintana Roo Wednesday. It is forecast to reach the central areas of the state Thursday and into Friday before tapering off Saturday.
According to the SMN, “a cyclonic circulation at high altitude over the southern Gulf of Mexico interacting with a trough in the middle levels of the atmosphere and a low-pressure trough over the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern Mexico, in addition to atmospheric instability, will cause very heavy to locally intense rainfall in the aforementioned regions.”
For the rest of the week, showers and heavy to very heavy rain will continue across much of the country, they reported. Isolated intense rains are forecast for the Yucatan Peninsula over the next three days.
For Wednesday, the SMN says “very heavy rains with isolated intense downpours (75 to 150 mm) are expected in Puebla (southwest and southeast), Veracruz (central and south), Oaxaca (north, east and south), Chiapas (west and south), Campeche (north and southwest) and Quintana Roo (north).
Heavy rains with isolated very heavy downpours (50 to 75 mm) are also expected in the State of Mexico (central and southwest), Morelos, Tabasco (west and south) and Yucatan (central, south and east).
For Thursday, June 11, very heavy rains with isolated intense downpours (75 to 150 mm) remain forecast for Puebla (southeast), Veracruz (central and south), Oaxaca (north and east), Chiapas (west, north, east and south), Tabasco (southeast), Campeche (west and southwest), Yucatán (east and southeast) and Quintana Roo (north and central).
Friday, June 12 will be similar with very heavy rains and isolated intense downpours (75 to 150 mm) for San Luis Potosí (east), Hidalgo (north and east), Jalisco (central and south), Colima, Michoacán (central and west), Puebla (north and southeast), Veracruz (north and central), Oaxaca (north), Chiapas (east and south), Tabasco (southeast) and Campeche (north and southwest), Yucatán (west) and Quintana Roo (south).
However, for Saturday, June 13, things begin to improve. “Intervals of showers with isolated heavy rains (25 to 50 mm) for Nuevo León (south), Colima, Michoacán (west and west), State of Mexico (north), Mexico City, Tlaxcala, Morelos, Guerrero (north), Chiapas (east), Tabasco (southeast), Campeche (north and coast), Yucatán (west) and Quintana Roo (central and south).
