Riviera Maya, Q.R. — Hurricane Hunters with the National Hurricane Centre (NOAA) have been investigating a disturbance in the south-central Caribbean Sea. The disturbance, which is currently Eighteen, is forecast to gain category 1 hurricane strength by early Wednesday morning.
In coming days, it is expected to pass over western Cuba, affecting the northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula in the process.
On Saturday, the disturbance had a trajectory for the northern coast of Quintana Roo, a trajectory that has since been updated to pass over Jamaica and the Cayman Islands as a tropical storm and western Cuba as a hurricane.
Eighteen is expected to become Tropical Storm Rafael on Monday and pass Jamaica Monday night and the Cayman Islands Tuesday. On Monday morning, the NOAA issued a tropical storm alert for Jamaica, a hurricane warning for the Cayman Islands and a hurricane watch for Cuba.
Eighteen is forecast to pass portions of western Cuba as a category 1 hurricane (Hurricane Rafael) early Wednesday. Rafael is then forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a tropical storm, but given the uncertainties in the long-range forecast track, it is too early to determine any possible impacts, the NOAA has reported.
Regardless of the Gulf of Mexico trajectory, the coast of Quintana Roo will be affected when it passes Cuba with wind and rain, according to the NOAA. Their map shows the outer bands of what will be Hurricane Rafael affecting the northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula from Holbox to Tulum.
Eighteen is currently moving northward near 6 mph (9 kms/h) and is forecast to take on a more northwest trajectory Monday.
