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Yucatan Peninsula back on storm watch as Milton forecast to pass over Cancun as category 3

Cancun, Q.R. — UPDTATED: The National Hurricane Centre (NOAA) has issued a storm watch for the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula including Cancun during the passing of Milton. Storm alerts by local authorities have now been extended from Holbox down to Tulum.

Milton will pass the Yucatan Peninsula as a hurricane after strengthening to a category 1 later today. During the storm’s Monday and Tuesday passing, the Yucatan Peninsula is likely to be affected by heavy rain and winds from Milton’s outer bands.

UPDATE October 6 p.m.: As of Sunday afternoon, State Civil Protection updated alerts from a general Azul (blue low danger) to include Verde (green, medium danger) for the coast of Quintana Roo.

In a public address Coordinación Estatal de Protección Civil QRoo posted, “Conagua reports a Green Alert for the northern municipalities of Quintana Roo, Cancun, Isla Mujeres, Lázaro Cárdenas, Cozumel and Puerto Morelos, entering Peligro Moderado due to the approach of hurricane Milton to the coast.

The municipalities in the center and west of the state enter Alerta Azul, minimum danger for Felipe Carrillo Puerto, Tulum, Solidaridad and José María Morelos.

Recommendations: Protect windows with adhesive tape in the shape of a cross, secure objects that can be thrown by the wind, prune trees that obstruct power cables and clean drains, roofs and manholes to prevent blockages. Remember that during hurricane season it is important to be Aware, Alert and Safe.”

Tropical Storm conditions from Milton are expected starting Monday across parts of the northern Yucatan Peninsula where a tropical storm watch is currently in effect. The NOAA has issued a tropical storm warning for the eastern tip of the Peninsula that includes Cancun.

According to Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), Milton will pass over Merida as a category 1 early Tuesday and then Cancun later that same day as a category 3 however, Weather Underground has Milton forecast to pass the entire Yucatan Peninsula as a category 3.

A trajectory of just how close Milton will be to Mexico when it passes has not been forecast.

Map: Weather Underground

As of noon Cancun time Sunday, Quintana Roo Civil Protection reported Milton’s location as 500 kms west-northwest of Progreso, Yucatan with maximum sustained winds of 100 kms/h and gusts of 120 kms/h.

Milton is slow-moving, drifting east-southeast at 9 kms/h. State Civil Protection has issued an alert from Celestún, Yucatan to Cabo Catoche, Quintana Roo (on Isla Holbox), and a tropical storm watch from Cabo Catoche to Cancun.

The Yucatan Peninsula was initially included in the NOAA forecast for the passing of Milton as it headed toward the Florida Peninsula, but was modified Saturday morning and removed from the NOAA’s storm warning list. However, that forecast has been modified again to now include, for a second time, the northern regions of the Yucatan Peninsula.

On September 24, Hurricane Helene passed within 74 kilometers of Cancun, leaving the northern region flooded with downed trees, infrastructure and more than 120,000 without power. Helene passed a majority of the coast as a tropical storm but gained category 1 status as it drifted closer and closer to Cancun. Helene went on to gain category 4 strength in the Gulf of Mexico before making U.S. landfall days later.

Hurricane Milton is forecast to gain category 1 strength Sunday before hitting the Florida Peninsula as a major hurricane sometime Thursday.