Riviera Maya, Q.R. — Forecasters are predicting below average activity for the 2026 hurricane season, however Super El Nino could change that. Colorado State University is calling for a below average hurricane season this year, but say things could ramp up in the Fall.
The university’s Department of Atmospheric Science forecasts the Atlantic basin hurricane season will have somewhat below-normal activity due to warming waters in the Pacific.
They say the current 2026 will likely see 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. The below-average forecast, they explained, is due to the influence of El Nino and potentially a Super El Nino late in the season.
Other forecasters such as AccuWeather also agree that the odds of El Niño and even a Super El Niño (when temperature anomalies exceed 2.0 degrees Celsius) are increasing.
Forecasters are predicting a strong peak late in the 2026 hurricane season as current weak La Niña conditions transition to El Niño (when sea surface temperatures rise at least 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 degrees F) above average across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific) in coming months.
According to Colorado State University, sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal but slightly cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
“We anticipate El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear.
“We are forecasting a below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” they said.
The probability of at least one major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean this season is estimated at 35 percent, down from the average of 47 percent.
“While most of our model guidance calls for a slightly to somewhat below-normal season, there remains considerable uncertainty with this outlook given uncertainty in the large-scale environmental conditions that will be present during the peak of the upcoming season (August–October),” they added.
The latest forecast from The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2 is also calling for a below average 2026 hurricane season. The forecast team cited El Niño conditions and lukewarm Atlantic waters as two key drivers.
According to Atmospheric G2’s VP of Meteorology Dr. Todd Crawford, “there is more limited downside than upside risk to the forecast given the low numbers, but concerns about a repeat of 2023 are relatively low given the much cooler SSTs this year.”
At the moment, forecasters predict a 15 percent chance of El Niño becoming a Super El Niño, however, updated forecasts are expected as the season progresses.
Long-Range AccuWeather forecaster Paul Pastelok said the process is tied to weakening trade winds which limit the upwelling of cooler water and allows surface waters to warm.
“The sea surface temperatures are quickly changing in the equatorial Pacific, so fast that this El Niño could begin in June,” Pastelok said noting that most El Niño events typically begin in the Fall.
The first named storm for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will be Arthur and in the Eastern Pacific, Amanda.
