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Tropical system south of Quintana Roo expected to continue developing

Riviera Maya, Q.R. — UPDATED: A tropical system located south of Quintana Roo continues to become better organized with forecasters calling for a 100 percent chance of further development over the next 48 hours.

The system is expected to develop into a tropical depression over the next day or so. According to the NOAA, “a vigorous tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea continues to produce organized cloudiness and thunderstorms, and a tropical depression appears to be forming. If this recent development trend continues, then advisories will likely be initiated on this disturbance this afternoon or evening while the system moves generally westward at about 15 mph toward the western Caribbean Sea.”

They also say that “interests in Jamaica, Honduras, and Nicaragua should monitor the progress of this system” for heavy rainfall throughout the weekend.

The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional for Mexico reports as of 6:00 a.m. October 31, the system is located 1,855 kilometers east-southeast of the state of Quintana Roo, noting the high probability of cyclone development over the next 48 hours.

If Invest 96L does develop into a named storm, it will be Eta, the 28th of the season, but unlikely the last since the 2020 Hurricane Season for the Atlantic Basin does not end until November 30.

Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional reports heavy rain for the Cancun, Riviera Maya region for the weekend due to Cold Front No. 9. They also report their continued observance of the Invest 96L system south of the state.

UPDATE: The NOAA reports the system, Invest 96L, has developed into Tropical Depression Twenty Nine, which they say, is expected to develop further. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says that by Monday afternoon it is expected to become a hurricane as it approaches Nicaragua and Honduras.

They report that the depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and is expected to continue through Sunday night. A slower motion toward the west-southwest and then southwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is expected to be near the northeastern coast of Nicaragua by Monday night.