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Gulf of Mexico brewing first cyclone of the season that could affect Mexico-U.S. border states

Mexico — The National Hurricane Center (NOAA) in Miami says a low pressure system located over the Bay of Campeche could soon have a name. The system is expected to develop into a tropical storm for Tuesday.

Currently, potential tropical cyclone ONE is continuing on a north-northwest trajectory, however, the NOAA says its exact forecast track is unknown. At the moment, ONE is likely to affect the Mexican state of Tamaulipas as well as parts of Texas and Louisiana.

“Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by midweek while the low moves slowly west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast,” the NOAA reported.

“Regardless of development, several more days of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over portions of Texas and Louisiana by the middle of the week,” they added.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was sent into the system Monday afternoon.

Locally, Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) says the possible tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico will approach the coast of Tamaulipas and may enter the state as a storm during the course of Thursday.

Gulf of Mexico brewing first cyclone of the season that could affect Mexico-U.S. border states
Image: NOAA

“It will interact with the instability generated by the monsoon trough that will extend over the southeast of the national territory, maintaining the storm of intense rains with occasional torrential rains,” the SMN has said.

On Thursday, strong to very strong winds with high waves and possible formation of waterspouts are expected on the coasts of Tamaulipas, Veracruz (north), Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo.

A waterspout was photographed the night of June 13, 2024 over Chetumal Bay prior to the arrival of intense rain that has not yet stopped.

During Friday, the remnants of the possible tropical cyclone will be located over the northeast of Mexico, while the monsoon trough will extend over the southeast and south of the country.

These systems will maintain the storm of intense rains to occasional torrential rains over states in the northeast, east, southeast, south and west of the Mexican territory, in addition to the Yucatan Peninsula.