Riviera Maya, Q.R. — Three systems detected by the NOAA continue to make their way toward the Caribbean. The first is a low pressure system AL94 that is not expected to develop beyond its current disorganized shower activity, at least not while passing over the Peninsula.
System AL94 is forecast to pass over the region this weekend bringing with it thunderstorms. According to the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), it will continue to move west over the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche at which time it may develop.
Rains are in the forecast for Riviera Maya late Friday and into Saturday as AL94 crosses from the Caribbean Sea to the Bay. Approximately 20 mms of rain is expected from AL94.
A second low pressure system, AL95, has developed into Tropical Storm Beryl, which is forecast to become Hurricane Beryl by Sunday afternoon. The system is currently southeast of Barbados and, according to State Civil Protection, currently poses no risk to Quintana Roo.
According to Accuweather Senior Storm Warning Meteorologist Eddie Walker, “the system is projected to at least reach tropical storm intensity by the time it reaches the Windward Islands.
“This means some of these islands may experience tropical storm conditions with squally rains, gusty thunderstorms and rough seas as early as Sunday. There is a chance the system reaches Category 1 hurricane strength (Sustained winds of 74-95 mph) as it reaches the Windwards as well.”
He says higher than normal water temperatures across the Atlantic could super-charge the hurricane season.
“We continue to observe much higher-than-historical-average water temperatures over most of the Atlantic, and this is the premise for the robust activity now and that AccuWeather has been anticipating a super-charged hurricane season for 2024 since this past winter,” Walker said.
On Friday afternoon, Quintana Roo Civil Protection (Coordinación Estatal de Protección Civil QRoo) reported “Tropical Depression Two has formed. Its center is located 1,790 km east-southeast of Barbados and 4,985 km east of the coast of Quintana Roo. It has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gusts of 75 km/h and is moving west at 33 km/h.
“Its development and possible trajectory are being monitored, and for the moment it does not represent a danger to the coasts of Quintana Roo. It is under permanent surveillance and any significant changes will be reported.”
On Saturday morning, Civil Protection updated quickly saying “Tropical Storm Beryl developed, east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles and 4,805 km east-southeast of the coasts of Quintana Roo.”
The third system is a tropical wave centered several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and currently has a 50 percent chance of further development over the next week.
