Cancun, Riviera Maya, Q.R. — The first of the early hurricane forecasts for the 2020 Atlantic Basin has been issued by Colorado State University.
The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which officially begins June 1, is forecast to have a 58 percent chance of a major hurricane for the Caribbean this year. Forecasters say the 2020 season is likely to be more active than normal, above historical averages.
According to Colorado State University, the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will consist of at least 16 storms and eight hurricanes, four of which, they predict, will be major. In their report, which was released Thursday, Philip J. Klotzbach, researcher at the CSU Department of Atmospheric Sciences said high temperatures of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic are “a favorable factor for an active hurricane season.”
Their forecast includes 80 days of storms and 35 days of hurricanes above the historical average of 59 and 24 respectively. In addition, they report a 44 percent probability of a hurricane reaching the Gulf of Mexico and a 58 percent probability of a hurricane in the Caribbean, both figures being above historical averages.
“This report is our best estimate of the potential hurricane activity with the atmospheric and oceanic conditions observed last season,” said Klotzbach who explained that the forecast is “only our best anticipation” of what could happen with hurricanes.
“It is impossible to predict a full hurricane season as early as April,” he added saying updated forecasts will be released on June 4, July 7, and August 6.