Riviera Maya, Q.R. — A system that soaked the south of Quintana Roo is on the verge of gaining tropical storm status. On Friday, a broad area of low pressure formed over the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. That system left most of southern Quintana Roo waterlogged.
At the time, the National Hurricane Centre said “some additional development is possible over the next few days when the system moves into the Bay of Campeche this weekend.
“By early next week this system should move inland over Mexico, ending its chances of additional development. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.”
Two days of heavy rain left a majority of the extreme south under water before the disturbance finally moved off into the Bay of Campeche. On Friday, the disturbance had only a 20 percent chance of further development, however on Saturday, the system, Invest AL91, has been updated to likely develop into a tropical depression possibly by end of day.
“Recent surface observations, satellite imagery, and radar data from Mexico suggests a well-defined surface circulation is developing with the area of low pressure located in the Bay of Campeche near the Mexican coastline. In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity is also starting to show signs of organization,” the NOAA said Saturday afternoon regarding Invest AL91.
“If these trends continue, a tropical depression is likely to form, possibly as soon as this afternoon, in the Bay of Campeche. This system is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward this weekend towards eastern Mexico, ultimately moving inland by Monday.
“An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate the system, and interests in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required for portions of the Mexican Gulf coast as soon as this afternoon. There is a HIGH chance of tropical formation over the next 48 hours.
“Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few days. There is also potential for flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in hilly terrain. The heaviest rainfall is forecast in the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi and Tamaulipas.”
On Saturday afternoon, the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla with the development of Tropical Depression Two.
At 4:00 p.m. CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). On the following track, the depression is expected to make landfall along the Mexico coast on Sunday night and move further inland on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some intensification is forecast over the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Mexico.
