Riviera Maya, Q.R. — A fast-moving tropical wave continues to head west toward the Caribbean Sea that is likely to become a named storm. The system, which was first detected October 16, now has a 90 percent chance of further development.
AL98 is likely to become tropical storm Melissa in coming days as the system continues to become organized. The National Hurricane Centre (NOAA) says Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba should monitor the system as it continues to develop.
“Recent satellite wind data indicate the tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea still lacks a closed circulation, but continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms near and to the east of the wave axis,” the NOAA reported Monday.
“Compared to yesterday, surface observations suggest the circulation is gradually becoming better defined, and environmental conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for development as the system slows its forward motion.
“A tropical depression or storm is now likely to form over the next day or two as it moves into the central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over portions of the ABC Islands during the next couple of days.
“Interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba should monitor its progress as there is a risk of heavy rain and flooding, strong winds, and rough surf later this week.”
A gale warning is also in affect. “A robust, fast-moving tropical wave will maintain gale E to SE winds and heavy showers at the eastern basin through at least this evening. Its fast speed should prevent any significant development in the short term.
“Afterward, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development as the wave slows down over the central Caribbean Sea, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next few days.
“There is a medium chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours, and a high chance within the next 7 days. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the south-central basin today. Rough seas in N swell will propagate through the Atlantic passages today before subsiding.”
