Riviera Maya, Q.R. — As the Atlantic passes peak hurricane season, developing systems continue to weaken as they near Quintana Roo. So far this season, the state has had only one storm make landfall.
That storm was Hurricane Beryl, the first hurricane of the season when, on July 5, it landed north of Tulum as a category 2. After Beryl, the Atlantic went quiet. Weeks past before the National Hurricane Centre (NOAA) reported on another system.
At least two developing systems since Beryl with a forecast trajectory for the Caribbean Sea have either dissipated or geared down as they neared tropical waters. According to meteorologists, unexpected dry air is likely, in part, responsible for the lull.
According to AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva, an unusual abundance of dry, dusty air has played a role in quashing tropical storm development this year.
“Tropical storms and hurricanes need moisture-rich air to thrive, but such conditions have been scarce leading up to the peak of hurricane season. There was an unusually high amount of dry air and Saharan dust across the Atlantic during the month of August,” he explained.
Massive clouds of dust have been photographed by NASA blowing off the coast of Africa. The dry air is predicted to eventually decrease leading to more favorable tropical development conditions.

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowsk says clusters of thunderstorms over Africa eventually emerge over the Atlantic and become tropical waves. Under the right conditions, they can become tropical storms and even hurricanes, however, this year, those systems have been convoluted. He agreed that these systems, once over the Atlantic, meet the dry air and struggle to develop.
On Sunday, the NOAA downgraded Tropical Storm Gordon to a Depression after hitting dry air as it headed west. It has been one of several storms this season to lose strength due to the Sahara air as it moved over the Atlantic.

Kelly Núñez Ocasio, a tropical meteorological expert and assistant professor at Texas A&M University who wrote a report on this year’s Atlantic season, agrees that the dry air over the Atlantic is starving systems and preventing development.
“For the first time, we’re seeing that this is actually the case,” she said. “We’re seeing it right now in the Atlantic hurricane season.”
Other reasons for a rather mild Atlantic hurricane season for Quintana Roo again this year is a phenomenon known as Atlantic Niña. While the Atlantic basin is warm, an area off the west coast of Africa is a lot cooler.
“Research has shown Atlantic Niñas can potentially lead to less tropical activity in the Atlantic. The reasoning behind this cooling in the Atlantic is still a bit unclear,” DeSilva said. He also says that a warm upper atmosphere above the ocean can create stability which makes it difficult for merging storms to become organized.
“This could be tied to climate change and a warmer planet,” he added.

However, one key factor most meteorologists considered in their forecasting for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was the inevitable arrival of La Niña. Forecasters predicted El Niño would be replaced by La Niña approximately mid-season, something that has not yet occurred.
La Niña has been credited with helping systems gain strength into storms with less disruptive wind shear, while, according to the NOAA, El Niño produces stronger westerly wind at upper levels of the atmosphere across the tropical Atlantic, thus, preventing storm development.
What developed into Hurricane Francine September 10, started out as a tropical wave off the coast of Africa with a trajectory for the Caribbean Sea. At one point during her travels over the Atlantic, the NOAA had given Francine a 60 percent chance of development, however, as that tropical wave neared Caribbean waters, it lost its oomph.

Image: NOAA September 11, 2024.
On September 6, the system passed over the bottom of the Yucatan Peninsula in its original state as a tropical wave bringing rain to the region. Once it passed over the Peninsula, it emerged out the other side into the Gulf of Mexico and eventually became Hurricane Francine that slammed Louisiana as a category 2 on September 11.
Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert and research scientist at Colorado State University has referred to the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season as “really surprising” after forecasting an unusually active season.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has already hit its peak which was September 10, and without the arrival of the anticipated La Niña. Forecasters had predicted March as the month the Atlantic would start to transition to La Niña, but now, that possibility has been pushed into late Fall.
For the previous two hurricane seasons, the state of Quintana Roo went untouched without so much as a tropical storm thanks to El Niño. This year, the region dealt with one hurricane, the only true storm to reach the coast in three years, however, Klotzbach says systems could begin to develop by the second half of September when these limiting factors could lessen.
Storms “will come back,” he said. “I still don’t see this season ending well.” The Atlantic Hurricane season runs until November 30.