Riviera Maya, Q.R. — Tropical Storm Melissa continues to develop as it moves slowly west-northwest. Melissa is still forecast to take on major hurricane status early next week. The storm is also forecast to take a sharp turn northeast and pass over a southern portion of Cuba next week.
According to the National Hurricane Centre, Melissa is meandering through the central Caribbean Sea at a super slow pace of 4 km/h. The nearly stationary storm is located southeast of Jamaica with a likely trajectory toward the eastern edge of Cuba and/or Jamaica.
“At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow northward motion is forecast during the next day or two, followed by a westward turn over the weekend.
“On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to move closer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
“Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by more rapid intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days and a major hurricane by the end of the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.”
The NOAA says “there have been changes in the path and intensity forecast, so uncertainty persists in both factors. For the time being, it is expected to remain in the central Caribbean at least until the end of this week, taking advantage of highly favorable conditions for intensification starting this Friday (or earlier). Therefore, an evolution into a Category 2 or 3 hurricane (or greater) cannot be ruled out this weekend.”
NOAA metrologists say gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by more rapid intensification this weekend. A slow northward motion is forecast during the next day or two, followed by a westward turn over the weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to move closer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days.
Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days.
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno says “there is some wind shear (disruptive breezes) holding the intensity of Melissa back right now and perhaps in the future.
“However, water temperatures in the path of Melissa in the Caribbean are in the upper 80s F.” According to AccuWeather, the approximate minimum temperature for tropical development is 78-80 degrees Fahrenheit. Then there is wind shear.
“Wind shear causes the vertical structure of the tropical storm to lean to one side and that is what is going on with Melissa at midweek due to westerly wind shear. The low-level center of the storm is on the western side of the mass of thunderstorms and that is inhibiting rapid strengthening at this time,” he explained.
With this, Melissa is expected to take a sharp turn northeast rather than continue trekking west into the western Caribbean Sea. There is no forecast, to date, that Melissa will impact the coast of Quintana Roo.
