Riviera Maya, Q.R. — As many as 18 hurricanes are forecast to develop in the Atlantic Basin this year for the 2025 season. Colorado State University, in its most recent outlook, says there are probabilities of tropical cyclone impacts for the Caribbean islands and Central American countries bordering the Caribbean Sea, as well as Mexico.
In an updated April statement they said “we anticipate that the 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity. Current La Niña conditions are likely to transition to ENSO neutral conditions in the next couple of months; however, there remains considerable uncertainty as to what the phase of ENSO will be this summer and fall.
“Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are generally warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral (or potential La Niña) conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.
“We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
Probabilities, they said, are defined as the possibility of one or more tropical cyclones occurring within an 80 km (50 mile) radius of the specified location.
According to Mexico’s Centro Nacional De Meteorología, as many as 18 hurricanes are expected from May to November. The agency says 18 strong and intense hurricanes are expected in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans (Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea), according to the Meteorological Department of the Secretariat of the Navy.
The tropical cyclone season begins on May 15 in the Pacific Ocean, where one tropical depression, eight tropical storms, six strong hurricanes and four intense hurricanes are expected.
On the other hand, starting June 1, two tropical depressions, seven tropical storms, four strong hurricanes, and four intense hurricanes are forecast in the Atlantic Ocean.
The seasonal forecast issued by the Meteorological Department of the Secretariat of the Navy is as follows:
Pacific Ocean May 15 to November 30
Tropical Depression = 1
Tropical Storms = 8
Strong Hurricanes (Categories 1 and 2) = 6
Intense Hurricanes (3, 4, and 5) = 4
Total Hurricane Events = 19
Atlantic Ocean (Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) – June 1 to November 30
Tropical Depression = 2
Tropical Storms = 7
Strong Hurricanes (1 and 2) = 4
Intense Hurricanes (3, 4, and 5) = 4
Total Hurricane Events = 17
The La Niña trend toward neutral continues to favor an active season on both coasts, with increased frequency and proximity of tropical cyclones. The 30- to 60-day Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) phase should be considered for tropical cyclone activity.
The official hurricane season for the Atlantic basin is from June 1 to November 30, but tropical cyclone activity sometimes occurs before and after these dates. In March, the National Hurricane Centre out of Miami detected a disturbance in the Atlantic, months ahead of the official monitoring season.
The first named storm of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be Andrea.
