Riviera Maya, Q.R. — Today marks the first day of storm monitoring in the Atlantic basin. Since 2021, the National Hurricane Centre (NOAA) out of Miami has been monitoring the Basin two weeks ahead of the official season.
According to Michael J. Brennan, Branch Chief Hurricane Specialist Unit with the National Hurricane Center, the monitoring start-date was pushed ahead of the official season due to “increased tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin in late May.”
On Thursday, Fabián Vázquez Romaña, the General Coordinator of the National Meteorological Service of Mexico, spoke about the upcoming 2025 hurricane season. Today, the season officially starts in the Pacific, two full weeks ahead of the Atlantic season.
Vázquez Romaña explained that the number of tropical cyclones forecast for the 2025 season in the Pacific and Atlantic is close to slightly higher than the climatological average due to the neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which is expected to remain for most of the hurricane season.
He reported that according to statistics, the most cyclones develop during the month of September, in the Pacific and Atlantic, followed by October. The states most affected by cyclones are Baja California Sur, Quintana Roo, Sinaloa, Veracruz, Tamaulipas and Yucatán.
For this season, he explained in the Pacific basin where the cycle begins today, 16 to 20 cyclones are expected to develop, each of which will be named, while in the Atlantic where the cycle begins on June 1, 13 to 17 named storms are expected.
Statistically, three cyclones will hit Mexico’s coast in the Pacific, while two will make landfall in the Atlantic. In both basins, the season ends on November 30. According to Quintana Roo Governor Mara Lezama, the state has 880 emergency shelters readied for hurricane use.
