Riviera Maya, Q.R. — In the middle of Mexico’s hurricane season, the National Meteorological Service (SMN) announces its winter weather forecast. The government agency says 48 cold fronts are expected to hit Mexican territory this winter with nearly half making their way to the Yucatan Peninsula.
Fabián Vázquez Romaña, the General Coordinator of the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), says the arrival of cold fronts have already begun. According to Vázquez Romaña, three cold front have already been recorded with another two expected to reach Mexico during the month of September.
The Mexican government, through the National Water Commission (Conagua) and the National Civil Protection Coordination (CNPC), called on the population to take precautions against the 48 frontal systems expected across the country during the 2025-2026 Cold Front Season.
Conagua General Director Efraín Morales López, explained that the 48 anticipated fronts are slightly lower than the average recorded between 1991 and 2020, which is 50.
He explained that this year’s forecast takes into consideration the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which, although currently in the Neutral phase, has a 60 percent chance of developing a weak, short-lived La Niña event in the Fall.
For Mexico, this typically translates into warmer and drier-than-usual winters, particularly in the north.
Regarding minimum temperatures, the National Meteorological Service (SMN) stated that, from September to November, temperatures are expected to be warmer than the 1991-2020 climatological average across most of the country with anomalies of 1 to 3 degrees Celsius above average, mainly in the northern plateau and the western part of the country.
In contrast, minimum temperatures below average are expected in the Sierra Madre Occidental regions. For the 2025-2026 cold front season, Mexico can expect five cold fronts in October, six in November and seven in December. In the New Year, a total of six are forecast for January, five cold fronts in February, six more in March, five likely in April and three last fronts during May.
For this season, meteorologists are forecasting 19 of those 48 cold fronts to reach the Yucatan Peninsula, a number slightly lower than the average 21 that influences the region.
