Riviera Maya, Q.R. — While the Cancun hurricane season has been quiet so far this year, activity is starting to pick up in the Atlantic. A very wet weekend has been forecast for most of the coast of Quintana Roo.
A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The system is arriving from off the northeastern coast of Honduras. The area of low pressure is making its way north.
On Thursday, State Civil Protection issued an advisory regarding the system and its possible further development. The unnamed system is expected to develop into a tropical depression in coming days as it moves northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
According to Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), “A low pressure channel over the southeast of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula is interacting within the proximity of an Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Instability at high levels of the atmosphere will cause very heavy rains at intense points in these regions.
“In turn, an area of low pressure with a probability of cyclonic development will enter the western Caribbean Sea and will reinforce the potential for rain in said Peninsula.”
The SMN is warning residents of between 50 and 75 mms of rain on Friday with Saturday being the hardest hit day with “very heavy rains” of between 75 to 150 mms. On Sunday, they also report “very heavy rains with intense points of 75 to 150 mms for Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, Campeche and Quintana Roo.”
As the system continues to move northward, the SMN forecasts for Monday additional “very heavy rains with intense points (75 to 150 mms) for Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco and Quintana Roo.”
The Coordinación Estatal de Protección Civil of Quintana Roo or State Civil Protection, has issued a weather advisory for the coastal region.
“Low pressure zone over northeastern Honduras increases to 20% probability for cyclonic development in 48 hours and to 70% in 7 days, is located approximately 530 km east-southeast of Chetumal, Quintana Roo and slowly moves north.”
Folks on the Pacific side of the country are finding themselves in a similar situation. According to the SMN, a Mexican monsoon arrived Thursday, soaking the states of Sonora, Chihuahua, Durango and Sinaloa.
A zone of low pressure with a high probability of cyclonic development located to the south of the coasts of Guerrero and Michoacán is expected to generate very heavy rains at intense points, winds with gusts of 50 to 60 km/h and high waves in Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca and Chiapas.